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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

Nate Silver

Hardcover | Pages: 534 pages

Rating: 3.98 | 40710 Users | 2935 Reviews

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Title	:	The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
Author	:	Nate Silver
Book Format	:	Hardcover
Book Edition	:	Deluxe Edition
Pages	:	Pages: 534 pages
Published	:	September 27th 2012 by Penguin (first published 2012)
Categories	:	Nonfiction. Science. Business. Economics. Politics. Psychology. Mathematics

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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller "Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Be Specific About Books To The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

Original Title:	The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
ISBN:	159420411X (ISBN13: 9781594204111)
Edition Language:	English
Literary Awards:	Goodreads Choice Award Nominee for Nonfiction (2012), Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science (2013)

Rating Containing Books The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

Ratings: 3.98 From 40710 Users | 2935 Reviews

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This book had so many parts that really captured my attention. The chapter on chess was particularly fascinating. Nate Silver did a great job of compiling vignettes about humans and our inability to see the signal through the noise.On the other hand, this book is simply a series of vignettes. And while I love that they are told in a way that conveys the point, I didn't feel like each chapter I was continuing on a journey or growing from point to point. It was just a series of points, tacked on.

This is a really amazing book - a must read for anyone who makes decisions or judgement calls. Even before I had finished the book it caused me to look at some of the assumptions and bad forecasts I was making as well as recognising "patterns" as noise.There is nothing "new" in this book, just well established and solid methods applied well and explained very coherently. The writing is excellent, the graphics helpful and the type not too small. There are plenty of footnotes (relevant to the

Some interesting parts, but it's really hard to take this superforecaster seriously on political forecasting--you know what I mean? And I am sort of over the moneyball theory too. I mean, it was useful a few years ago to break free from "gut feelings", but I think the pendulum swung too far into just cold data and needs to swing back into the world of humans and fat tails and Trump getting elected.

I'm going to do this the Nate Silver (Bayesian) way. Kind of. Prior ProbabilityInitial estimate of how likely it is that I will buy Nate Silver a drink: x = 10% (This may seem high, given that he is a stranger who lives in another city, but I did rely on his blog during the past two elections, so I'd at least like to.) New Event -- I read Nate Silver's bookProbability that I will fly to New York and track him down and thrust a drink in his hand because this was a great book and I am impressed. y

I followed Nate Silver's blog (FiveThirtyEight) closely during the run-up to election day 2012. His premise was simple: grab every public poll possible, attempt to correct for pollsters' known biases, and produce a forecast based on the result. Somehow no one had thought to do this before. Silver simply crunched the numbers and nailed the outcomes in every state. Meanwhile, pundits, bloggers, and assorted blowhards made predictions based on nothing but gut feeling and partisan hackery, and they

It was really interesting coming to this book soon after reading The Black Swan, as in some ways they cover similar ground but take a very different approach. I ought to say straight away that this book is too long at a wrist-busting 534 pages, but on the whole it is much better than its rival. Where Black Swan is written in a highly self-indulgent fashion, telling us far too much about the author and really only containing one significant piece of information, Signal and Noise has much more

"فارسی در ادامه"My actual rating would be 7/10. In general, it was an interesting and insightful read, although I have mixed feelings about some of the chapters and concepts, and sometimes the pretentious tone of presenting ideas. Let's start by two weaknesses:At some points it seems good prediction looks like a 'hammer' to see all the problems as 'needles'. So, all the problems can be interpreted as the failures of prediction. To me it does not sound very scientific (in a Popperian sense): an